Trump’s Election Plan & Whats Coming
There is so much fear and anxiety about the US election on Tuesday 5 November. Everybody’s phone is an out of control snaking fire hose of headlines. It is difficult to see the forest through all the trees. Here are some things to know, starting with the three main goals of Trump, his party, and its supporters.
First goal, through social media, they micro-target likely Democratic to discourage them from voting, just like 2016 and 2020 but much bigger operation this time. The messaging is unique for each micro group, which is why they divide us into so many groups. This is not an election that is likely to be won, it will be lost.
A good example of this was the Brexit vote which used the same method. The message to Brexit supporters was this is our one and only chance, go! The message to the Remain supporters was, “Are you kidding? You really think this is possible? Don’t worry, the adults will make sure everything is ok.” And the Remainers didn’t turnout exactly as intended.
The US election will be lost by turnout. The biggest micro targeted group are among young people, Arabs, Muslims, etc. They are told (in some form) that Kamala Harris is complicit in Palestinian genocide and the Democrats need to be taught a lesson. But there are endless other micro messages for these micro groups focused on getting Democrats not to vote. Or, barring that, get them to vote a straight ticket but not for Harris.
Or of course to deflect votes to Jill Stein whose sole goal now is to prevent a Democrat from being elected president and focuses completely on swing states. Remember her votes outnumbered the difference between Trump and Clinton in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2016.
Second goal, flood the zone with shit about Trump being ahead, via tons of fake polls. This is simple preparation for Trump saying he won after the election. If he wins, they say they knew it all along and it was obvious. If he loses he will again pretend he won and point to all these fake polls. No actual media takes these seriously, they are not real, but within Republican silos, there are an incredible number of them prepping the base.
Third goal, they intend to stop and delay the count in whatever way they can at the moment they are ahead, via the thinnest pretext, including fake exit polls. The idea is to plant a stake in the ground on this pretext and say that anything, any counting, that comes afterwards is cheating.
Some of this will be intimidation of people counting, like the Brooks Brothers riot https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brooks_Brothers_riot organized by Roger Stonein 2000 that stopped the Florida count (because Gore won Florida) and due to the constitutionally mandated post election count, allowed five supreme court justices to appoint Bush president. Same intention this time. They will also use the courts https://www.democracydocket.com/cases/ and point to the fact of the cases, the outcome is irrelevant. And simple messaging to their supporters.
Trump now controls the party and there is no real help going to down-ballot candidates unless they publicly profess loyalty and support his campaign and even then, not much. And it is only active in swing states.
Remember that even statistically serious polls have no meaning. These percentages are a fraction with a numerator and denominator. The numerator is the number of people who support one or the other candidate. This is largely accurate.
The denominator is the number of people who say that they are likely to vote. This numerator has no connection to reality. Democrats are optimists and almost always intend to vote but often don’t. Republican self reported voters are much more likely to vote. There are ways to correct for this but they are based on historical data and are arbitrary in any given election.
What passes for media now is consumed on phones, and is focused on creating a link you will click or a video you will watch. And Democrats, desperate for some solace and happy news will always click on these polling percentages in headlines.
The best thing people can do from now until the election is to connect with people you know, particularly who have moved recently or who are young and to ask them if they have a plan to vote or want help with one. Voting rules have changed in some places due fossil fuel driven disasters, for example, North Carolina. So just reach out and help which may mean some research and will mean some support.
And no matter what happens, 2026 will be a crazily important election. Think about what you want to do in 2025 to prepare for 2026. Slow and steady wins the race not this exhausting even-year October hullabaloo we always put ourselves through.
Stay relentless, siblings.
