The Seven Things to Pay Attention to in the November 2020 US Election

1. Race to 270 There are 538 seats in the electoral college that decides who will be president. States with more people have more electors. The first candidate to get over half, ie 270, wins. That’s the easiest way to think of it.
2. The Width of the Path Candidates can win in various combinations of states, but some states are bigger or swinger than others. The states Biden has in the bag are way bigger states like California, New York, Illinois, than the ones Trump does. So they say Biden has “a wider path” to 270 than Trump. Trump MUST get a certain collection of big states to win, Biden has more options.
3. Timing matters. Timing is important in all this. States in the Eastern time zone are 47% of the US population, Central 29%, Mountain 7%, Pacific 17%, and of course the eastern states report earlier on Tuesday night if the counts are done. Some states by their own laws can count faster. Florida for example can count mail in ballots starting three weeks before the election so could announce Tuesday if it’s decisive. Pennsylvania can only count mail-in ballots starting on election day. This election is unlikely to be a landslide for Trump, but it may be for Biden. There are three important east coast swing states that could finish counting Tuesday night, North Carolina, Georgia and Florida. If Biden wins one of them, he’ll end up president. If Trump wins all three, Biden can still win but we’ll have to wait a few days for the count in Pennsylvania on Thursday or Friday. Other important states are Michigan, Arizona, and Wisconsin.
4. Trends are partly national. If Biden or Trump perform better than expected in the first states to report, that is likely to be at least somewhat of national trend. For example, if either Georgia or North Carolina counts and announces quickly, meaning it was a decisive victory, it becomes more likely the other states, particularly in the same area will too.
5. The Red Mirage. Democrats have tended to mail in ballots and vote early. Republicans, because they are less worried about Covid and more likely to live in less densely populated areas, will vote more on election day. States that announce the results of the votes that were cast election day first will tend to be announcing Republican votes. Trump will make anchor announcements saying he won a particular state and that all other ballots yet to be counted are fraudulent. If the election is close, it will take a while to count, a few days. If Trump loses Pennsylvania he will not make it to 270 and they won’t finish counting until the end of the week. But if he can push the count even later, his hope will be to gum everything up in court and spend weeks moving it to the Supreme Court.
6. Republican leaders are scared of Trump. Trump will try to enlist Republican state legislators and other Republicans to make aggressive statements and do what they can to slow down counts, and undermine confidence in results. By the same token, if Biden makes it to 270, then Republican leadership at the state level and nationally will fall in line, the delay tactics will subside quickly. They will want to try to salvage what they have of their reputations and stay out of jail in a post Trump world.
7. Remember the US Senate In the Republican leadership, only the fanatics support Trump. They are all afraid of him and so keep quiet but would love to be the second one to kick him on his way down. Many Republican leaders actually want Biden to win but for the Republicans to keep control of the Senate. That way they will be able to prevent any improvement in people’s lives but can blame it all on Biden. So among the real power brokers in Washington, the most important battle is for the Senate. Even if Biden makes it to 270, watch the US Senate. There are about twelve US Senate seats the Democrats could take. Depending on whether Biden wins, if the Democrats win four or five out of these twelve they will control the Senate. The twelve are, from North West to South East: One each in Alaska, Montana, Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Texas, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, South Carolina, and two seats in Georgia.

And in the Georgia Senate race there will be a runoff on 5 January 2021. So once the dust settled on this election, everybody will be watching Georgia.